Analysis of the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading and Energy Structure Optimization on Carbon Emission Reduction

In China, there has been a significant increase in carbon emissions in the new era. Therefore, evaluating the influence of industrial structure upgrades and energy structure optimization on reducing carbon emissions is the objective of this research. Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces and cities across China from 1997 to 2019, this paper builds up a fixed-effect panel quantile STIRPAT model to investigate the differences in the impact of industrial structure on carbon emission intensity at different quantile levels from the provincial perspective, and as a way of causality test, the mediation effect model is adopted to empirically test the transmission path of "industrial structure upgrading-energy structure optimization-carbon emission reduction". The research results show that: (1) Both industrial structure upgrades and energy structure optimization have significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, and there are regional heterogeneities. (2) The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant positive effect on optimizing energy structure. (3) The upgrading of industrial structure can not only directly restrain carbon emissions but also indirectly have a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions by promoting the optimization of energy structure. Based on the above conclusions, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed to provide suggestions for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.

DELAYED MODEL FOR THE TRANSMISSION AND CONTROL OF COVID-19 WITH FANGCANG SHELTER HOSPITALS

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a huge threat to global public health. Motivated by China's experience of using Fangcang shelter hospitals (FSHs) to successfully combat the epidemic in its initial stages, we present a two-stage delay model considering the average waiting time of patients' admission to study the impact of hospital beds and centralized quarantine on mitigating and controlling of the outbreak. We compute the basic reproduction number in terms of the hospital resources and perform a sensitivity analysis of the average waiting times of patients before admission to the hospitals. We conclude that, while designated hospitals save lives in severely infected individuals, the FSHs played a key role in mitigating and eventually curbing the epidemic. We also quantified some key epidemiological indicators, such as the final size of infections and deaths, the peak height and its timing, and the maximum occupation of beds in FSHs. Our study suggests that, for a jurisdiction (region or country) still struggling with COVID-19, when possible, it is essential to increase testing capacity and use a centralized quarantine to massively reduce the severity and magnitude of the epidemic that follows. © 2023 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

The Gift of Ancient Times:a Breakthrough in The Tracing ofModern Human Genes br

The2022Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to Swedish biologist Svante Paabo forhis decisive contribution to paleoanthropogenomics and human origins.There are various theories about theorigin of human beings,and the current mainstream view is:out of the African doctrine.In other words,ancienthumans had about three times of migrations.The first time wasHomo erectus,the second was Neanderthals andDenisovans,and the third was the ancestors of modern humans.All migrated from Africa to Eurasia.Whilepioneering a new discipline,paleoanthropogenomics,Svante Paabo has been refining the"Out of Africa Theory".With the help of various biological techniques,he delved into the origin of human beings from the perspective ofgenomics and found that some genetic imprints from ancient humans were retained in our bodies.For example,the STAT2gene and TLR gene associated with immunity,the EPAS1gene that contributes to hypoxic respirationand the six genes of chromosome3are highly positively correlated with the incidence of COVID-19.Thisresearch means that we can go back to the root of certain diseases,rather than limiting our eyes to the genesthemselves,and exploring where a gene comes from will be a new way of studying diseases.We summarized hisinnovations in related biotechnology in the process of research,his exploration of ancient humans based onmitochondrial and nuclear genes and related results,and introduced some genes derived from ancient humans andtheir related information

Clinical and pharmacological research progress of “three medicines and three formulae” for COVID-19 treatment

The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in extensive human casualties and serious economic losses worldwide. The main pathogenesis of COVID-19 is viral lung infection, which causes excessive immune response and cytokine storm, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Due to China’s long history of battling plagues, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has formulated herbal recipes and developed theories on infectious diseases. During the fight against COVID-19, “three medicines and three formulae”, including Jinhua Qinggan granules, Lianhua Qingwen capsules, Xuebijing injection, Qingfei Paidu decoction, Huashi Baidu decoction, and Xuanfei Baidu decoction, were recommended by leading TCM experts and academicians. These remedies were adopted in the national guidelines for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Guided by the TCM theory of heat removal, humidity reduction and detoxification, the scope of the “three medicines and three formulae” approach covers the entire course of a COVID-19 infection, including the phase of pre-symptomatic medical observation and the different diagnostic stages (mild, moderate, severe, and critical) of the disease. This study reviewed progress in clinical research as well as the mechanisms of action, concerning “three medicines and three formulae” for COVID-19. Clinical evidence suggests that the “three medicines and three formulae” are effective in preventing and treating COVID-19 by alleviating typical symptoms such as fever, coughing, fatigue, phlegm and diarrhea, shortening nucleic acid-negative conversion time, improving computed tomography images feature, inhibiting lung inflammation, normalizing clinical biomarkers, and reducing COVID-19-related complications. The pharmacological mechanisms of the “three medicines and three formulae” mainly include: binding with ACE2, 3CLpro, PLpro, and TMPRSS2 to inhibit virus invasion and replication;reducing the production and secretion of pro-inflammatory factors (such as IL-6, TNF-α, IL-1, IL-10, CXCL8, CXCL10, and CCL2) to regulate immune function;and decreasing clinical indicators (such as IL-6, CRP, and D-dimer) associated with the crosstalk of viral toxicity, endothelial damage, cytokine storm, excessive immune response, and microthrombosis to protect multiple organs against damage. In the future, it is necessary to collect further clinical evidence of the “three medicines and three formulae” for COVID-19 by conducting high-quality, large-scale randomized controlled trials. Trials targeting different Chinese medicine syndromes in specific patient populations are particularly desirable. Big data collection and analysis of the efficacy and safety of the “three medicines and three formulae” for COVID-19 can be facilitated by artificial intelligence and deep learning. In addition, the active components of these treatments, in various combinations with one another, should be identified, and their respective underlying mechanisms of action should be assessed using advanced technologies, such as multi-omics integration and human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived disease models. Moreover, more attention should be paid to the COVID-19 patients of post-infection, with common syndromes such as fatigue or muscle weakness, sleep deprivation, and anxiety or depression especially for low-immunity children and elderly with chronic diseases. TCM has many advantages and should be actively explored for patients with unmet medical needs. © 2022 Chinese Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

THE PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS OF LIVER FUNCTION TEST ABNORMALITIES IN PATIENTS ADMITTED TO HOSPITAL WITH COVID-19

Background & Aims: Prior studies have indicated the presence of hepatic inflammation (as signified by elevated liver function test (LFT) values), as conferring an escalated risk toward adverse outcomes in patients admitted with COVID-19. In line with this hypothesis, we study the various thresholds of LFTs and its associated prognostic risks toward COVID- 19 related hospital deaths Method: This was a single-center retrospective study involving patients admitted with COVID-19. Univariate Cox regression analysis identified the LFT variables significantly associated with our primary endpoint, in-hospital death. Subsequently, 500 iterations of thresholds were generated for each biomarker to estimate the prognostic relationship between biomarker and endpoint. Multivariate Cox regression and event-analyses were performed for each threshold to identify the minimal cutoffs at which the prognostic relationship was significant. Event curves were drawn for each significant relationship. Results: A total of 858 patients with COVID-19 were included with a median follow-up time of 5 days from admission. From the total, 90 patients passed away during admission (10.5%). The deceased cases were more likely to be older (66.2 vs 55.3y p<0.001);however, there was no difference in gender (male: 66 vs 56.2% p=0.11). Between the cases and controls (no-death), deceased cases had higher incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (7.78 vs 2.99% p=0.042), COPD (18.9 vs 7.80% p=0.001), lung cancer (4.44 vs 0.65% p= 0.009), ICU admissions (81.1 vs 26% p<0.001), and intubation events (84.4 vs 19.5% p<0.001), however there was no difference in alcohol use (21.1 vs 30.6% p=0.083) and alcoholic liver disease (5.56 vs 2.08% p=0.097). Upon univariate Cox analysis, the following LFT parameters were associated with in-hospital death: Bilirubin (p<0.001), AST (p<0.001), ALT (p<0.001). However, alkaline phosphatase (p=0.449) was not associated with the primary endpoint. The iterations of event regression analyses using 500 sequences of LFT thresholds showed the following cutoffs to be significantly associated with in-hospital death (minimally significant values): ALT (281.71 IU/L), AST (120.94 IU/L), bilirubin (2.615 mg/ dL). On the multivariate analysis, while controlling for demographics and cardiopulmonary/ medical comorbidities, the following adjusted hazard ratios were derived for each cutoff: ALT (aHR: 6.43 95%CI 1.85-22.40), AST (aHR: 3.35 95%CI 1.84-6.11), and bilirubin (aHR: 2.77 95%CI 1.15-6.65). Conclusion: The delineated cutoffs for AST, ALT, and bilirubin levels can serve as clinical benchmarks to help determine when a COVID-19 infection poses significant risk. Given this finding, the cutoffs can be used as part of a risk assessment for patients to support early preventative therapies and medical management. (Table Presented)

A NOVEL PROGNOSTIC MODEL INCLUDING LIVER FUNCTION PARAMETERS ACCURATELY PREDICTS 30-DAY MORTALITY IN PATIENTS ADMITTED WITH COVID-19

Background and Aims: While the relationship between elevated liver enzymes and COVID- 19 related adverse events is well-established, a liver-dependent prognostic model that predicts the risk of death is helpful to accurately stratify admitted patients. In this study, we use a bootstrapping-enhanced method of regression modeling to predict COVID-19 related deaths in admitted patients. Method: This was a single-center, retrospective study. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed using 30-day mortality as the primary endpoint to establish associated hepatic risk factors. Regression-based prediction models were constructed using a series of modeling iterations with an escalating number of categorical terms. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Model accuracy was internally validated using bootstrapping-enhanced iterations. Results: 858 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 were included. 78 were deceased by 30 days (9.09%). Cox regression (greater than 20 variables) showed the following core variables to be significant: INR (aHR 1.26 95%CI 1.06-1.49), AST (aHR 1.00 95%CI 1.00- 1.00), age (aHR 1.05 95%CI 1.02-1.08), WBC (aHR 1.07 95%CI 1.03-1.11), lung cancer (aHR 3.38 95%CI 1.15-9.90), COPD (aHR 2.26 95%CI 1.21-4.22). Using these core variables and additional categorical terms, the following model iterations were constructed with their respective AUC;model 1 (core only): 0.82 95%CI 0.776-0.82, model 2 (core + demographics): 0.828 95%CI 0.785-0.828, model 3 (prior terms + additional biomarkers): 0.842 95%CI 0.799-0.842, model 4 (prior terms + comorbidities): 0.851 95%CI 0.809-0.851, model 5 (prior terms + life-sustaining therapies): 0.933 95%CI 0.91-0.933, model 6 (prior terms + COVID-19 medications): 0.934 95%CI 0.91-0.934. Model 1 demonstrated the following parameters at 0.91 TPR: 0.54 specificity, 0.17 PPV, 0.98 NPV. Bootstrapped iterations showed the following AUC for the respective models: model 1: 0.82 95%CI 0.765-0.882, model 2 0.828 95%CI 0.764-0.885, model 3 0.842 95%CI 0.779-0.883, model 4: 0.851 95%CI 0.808-0.914, model 5: 0.933 95%CI 0.901-0.957, model 6: 0.934 95%CI 0.901- 0.961. Conclusion: Model 1 displays high prediction performance (AUC >0.8) in both regression-based and bootstrapping-enhanced modeling iterations. Therefore, this model can be adopted for clinical use as a calculator to evaluate the risk of 30-day mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19. (Table Presented)

Integrating network pharmacology and molecular docking to explore the potential mechanism of Xinguan No. 3 in the treatment of COVID-19

Xinguan No. 3 has been recommended for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19);however, its potential mechanisms are unclear. This study aims to explore the mechanisms of Xinguan No. 3 against COVID-19 through network pharmacology and molecular docking. We first searched the ingredients of Xinguan No. 3 in three databases (Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform, Traditional Chinese Medicines Integrated Database, and The Encyclopedia of Traditional Chinese Medicine). The active components and their potential targets were predicted through the SwissTargetPrediction website. The targets of COVID-19 can be found on the GeneCards website. Protein interaction analysis, screening of key targets, functional enrichment of key target genes, and signaling pathway analysis were performed through Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes databases, Metascape databases, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway databases. Finally, the affinity of the key active components with the core targets was verified by molecular docking. The results showed that five core targets had been screened, including MAPK1, NF-kappa B1, RELA, AKT1, and MAPK14. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed that the key targets were associated with inflammatory responses and responses to external stimuli. KEGG enrichment analysis indicated that the main pathways were influenza A, hepatitis B, Toll-like receptor signaling pathway, NOD-like receptor signaling pathway, and TNF signaling pathway. Therefore, Xinguan No. 3 might play a role in treating COVID-19 through anti-inflammatory, immune responses, and regulatory responses to external stimuli.

COVID 19 pandemic: Impact of changes experienced on social workers' professional quality of life in Singapore.

COVID-19 has impacted all spheres of life massively. Among the emerging studies on the psychosocial impact of the pandemic, few studies look specifically at how social workers are impacted. To understand this gap, this study surveyed 337 social workers. The findings showed that changes experienced in the workplace were enormous and caused secondary traumatic stress while engendering compassion satisfaction among social workers, but the presence of social support moderated to keep the secondary traumatic stress at bay. Resilience mediated association between social and workplace support and compassion fatigue. Social support seemed to have the largest effect on reducing stress through resilience. Workplace support also helped mitigate burnout. In conclusion, continued social and workplace support will be key to supporting social workers during a pandemic.

Evaluating the Risk of Reopening the Border: A Case Study of Ontario (Canada) to New York (USA) Using Mathematical Modeling

Many countries have adopted border closures and other jurisdictions (provinces, states, cities, etc.) to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Such measures have significantly restricted population movement and have thus led to immense economic and social fallouts. We build a Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic- Infectious (prodromal phase)- Infectious (with symptoms) -Recovered (SEAIR) model with a household structure to investigate the potential of a safe reopening of a border, which can control disease spread but also allow for economic growth. We focus on the Ontario-USA border, considering an opening date of September 21, 2020. In addition to the instantaneous reproduction number, we also define a novel risk indicator by calculating daily new infections’ percentile to inform risk levels promptly. Under ideal conditions, assuming extremely efficient border testing and strict traveler adherence to quarantine policy, the Ontario-USA can be reopened for a maximum daily number of 500 travelers entering Canada. A number exceeding 500 will stem an uncontrollable spread of the virus. Additionally, the current quarantine policy may not be sufficient under specific scenarios;hence testing measures at the border must be extremely efficient. Reopening of the Ontario-USA must consider the potential for disease spread (which can overburden healthcare resources) and economic growth. If a reopening plan is implemented, the local government must limit the number of daily entrances to 500 and enforce a mandatory quarantine, which may need to be stricter than current policy practice. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Application of a crisis management nursing system in the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic

Objective: To explore the application of a nursing crisis management system in the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Methods: A retrospective nursing method was implemented. A total of 280 cases of patients were diagnosed with coronavirus pneumonia in the isolation ward of our hospital. The 280 cases of newly diagnosed pneumonia were divided into two groups: The nursing crisis management system group (n=150, the nursing crisis management was given) and the non-nursing crisis management system (n=130, routine nursing management was given). The psychological status (profile of mood states (POMS) score) of nursing staff before and after the implementation of the nursing crisis management, the psychological status of patients after the implementation of nursing crisis management (POMS score), emotion, cognition, behavior severity, patients' satisfaction with nursing, treatment compliance (Morisky Medication Compliance Scale (MMAS) score) of patients, the rate of cure of patients and the infection rate of nursing staff were compared. Results: Compared with the non-nursing crisis management system group, the POMS scores of patients and nurses in the nursing crisis management system group decreased (all P<0.05). Compared with the non-nursing crisis management system group, the emotional, cognitive and behavioral scores of patients in the nursing crisis management system group were lower, while the MMAS score, satisfaction with nursing and cure rate were significantly increased (all P<0.05). The 142 nursing staff did not catch coronavirus. Conclusion: During the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak and the current normal epidemic prevention and control periods, our crisis management mode was introduced into nursing work. The construction of the nursing crisis management mode under the epidemic situation can improve the psychological state and improve the management efficiency of the patients and nurses. The patients' satisfaction is high and the treatment compliance is good.

[Research study on nucleic acid testing of hemostatic stickers used and the surface of the recipients' hands after the inoculation of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine].

Among the staff of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, who received the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine on January 30 in 2021, 28 recipients were selected for this research. Samples for nucleic acid tests were collected from the surface of the recipients' both hands before and after vaccination. The hemostatic stickers used after the inoculation were also collected for nucleic acid tests. The nucleic acid tests of the samples collected from the surface of both hands of the 28 recipients before vaccination were all negative. After vaccination, the nucleic acid tests of the samples collected from the surface of both hands of recipients were positive in 3 cases, and suspicious in 8 cases, with a positive rate of 10.7%. A total of 25 hemostatic stickers used were collected, 24 of them had positive nucleic acid tests, and the rest one had suspicious nucleic acid test result, with a positive rate of 96%. The hemostatic stickers used after the inoculation have the risk of nucleic acid contamination.